Rate Strategy
Should I Lock or Float My Mortgage Rate?
The lock-or-float decision comes down to three variables: how close you are to closing, where the market is heading, and how much downside risk you can actually absorb. Here is the framework, plus live rates so you can see today's market in context.
Quick Decision Framework
Lock now if...
- - Closing within 30-45 days
- - Today's rate meets your number
- - You cannot absorb higher rates
- - Market trend is sideways or up
It depends if...
- - Closing 45-60 days out
- - Today's rate is close
- - Mixed market signals
- - Consider 60-day lock + float-down
Float if...
- - Closing 60+ days out
- - Today's rate is above your number
- - You can absorb downside
- - Market trend is improving
See where the market is right now
The pricer below shows live wholesale rates for multiple lock periods. Use it to see what 15-day, 30-day, 60-day, and 90-day locks cost today.
Conventional Loan Facts
- Down payment as low as 3% for first-time homebuyers, 5% for others
- Down payment assistance programs available to fully cover the 3% down payment
- Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) required below 80% LTV - automatically removed at 78%
- Maximum DTI typically 45%, up to 50% with strong compensating factors
- Minimum credit score generally 620; best rates at 740+
- Available for primary residence, second home, or investment property
- No upfront mortgage insurance premium - only monthly PMI if applicable
What Drives Mortgage Rate Moves
Mortgage rates move with the 10-year Treasury and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) spreads. The biggest market movers, in order:
- Fed policy expectations. FOMC meetings and Fed Chair commentary move rates immediately.
- CPI and PCE inflation. Released monthly. Higher-than-expected = rates up.
- Non-farm payrolls. First Friday of the month. Strong job growth pressures rates higher.
- Treasury auctions and MBS spreads. Bond market technicals can move rates 0.125% in a day.
- Geopolitical events. Flight-to-safety moves typically push rates lower.
If a major data release is within your lock window, that's a reason to either lock before the print (avoid the risk) or float through it (chase a favorable surprise). Pick one based on your downside tolerance.
Lock Window Cost
Longer locks cost more. Approximate pricing impact:
| Lock period | Approx pricing cost vs 15-day |
|---|---|
| 15 days | Baseline (best price) |
| 30 days | +0.05 to 0.10 in rebate cost |
| 45 days | +0.15 to 0.25 |
| 60 days | +0.25 to 0.40 |
| 75-90 days | +0.40 to 0.75 |
Actual lock cost depends on market volatility. The pricer above reflects live cost for each window today.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I lock my mortgage rate today?+
Lock if your closing is within 30-45 days AND the live rate today meets your number, OR if you cannot stomach the downside risk of rates going higher before close. Float if your closing is 60+ days out, the market trend is in your favor, and you can absorb the downside if you guess wrong.
When is the best time to lock a mortgage rate?+
Within 30-45 days of closing. Locking earlier than that requires longer lock windows (60, 75, 90 days) that cost meaningful pricing - typically 0.125% to 0.5% in rate or rebate. Locking inside 15 days, where lenders price the shortest window, often gets the best price.
What is a float-down option?+
A float-down lets you lower your locked rate once before close if the market drops by a defined amount (often 0.25%). Lenders usually charge for this feature - either upfront (around 0.25 in rebate) or built into the rate. Worth it on a volatile market with a long lock.
How long can I lock a mortgage rate?+
Standard windows: 15, 30, 45, 60, 75, and 90 days. New construction or extended closes can lock up to 120-180 days for a meaningful pricing cost. The pricer above shows pricing across multiple lock periods so you can see the cost of each.
What happens if I lock and rates drop?+
You are committed to the locked rate unless you bought a float-down option, switch lenders mid-process (which restarts disclosures and timing), or your lender voluntarily renegotiates (rare and usually only on big moves).
Does the $2,000 Best Price Guarantee help me if I lock too early?+
Indirectly - the guarantee triggers if another lender closes you at a strictly better combination of rate, fees, and MI on the same loan. If you locked too early and rates dropped a lot, you could close with a competing lender and the program would pay $2,000 on qualifying loans. The math has to make sense before you do this.
Ready to lock?
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Real-time wholesale pricing
Refinance lock strategy
Same framework, refi rates
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